How Long Will Our Water Last?

The Citizens Water Advocacy Group (CWAG) is often asked how long our water supply will last. Unfortunately, that's a question scientists cannot answer. Yet many of our government officials provide unsupported, rosy predictions that take attention away from the real issue, which is the threat to the sustainability of our future water supply and future severe consequences.

Scientists cannot accurately predict how long our water will last because geologic and hydrologic conditions in the Little Chino and Agua Fria aquifers (where our water comes from) are not adequately known. We do not know how much water we can afford to extract, and how much resulting collateral damage is acceptable. Also, everyone will not run out of water at the same time. While municipal water supplies are sufficient for the near future, an increasing number of family wells on the eastern and western edges of the Little Chino aquifer are running out of water right now. 

What scientists do know is that we are dependent on the groundwater in our aquifers and, for decades, we have been pumping more than is being replenished. This situation is called overdraft and is not sustainable. For example, the 2018 groundwater overdraft was equivalent to a football field flooded to a depth of 3 1/2 miles.

The effects of continuous overdraft appear as a reduction in water levels in our wells, causing many other problems. The negative environmental consequences of draining the aquifers include the loss of springs, such as Del Rio Springs, and a reduction in the base flow of the upper Verde River and the Agua Fria River. The social consequence is that family wells on the edges of the aquifer will go dry. The health consequence is that water quality generally worsens as aquifer levels fall.

Instead of being cautious, many local officials are pursuing water management policies that will deny water to future generations. Each new house increases the overdraft, no matter how efficient water use is inside and outside the house. Current water management policies are based on groundwater pumping legally permitted by the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Our government officials appear to be only concerned with what is legally permitted regardless of the negative long-term impacts on our aquifers

Unless we can progress to sustainable groundwater use, cities and towns will face a very expensive future water shortage and some rural areas will become unlivable. The environmental and economic costs of the loss of the base flow of the Verde River will be immeasurable.

It is our responsibility to act now to achieve a sustainable water future.

Join the Citizens Water Advocacy Group and help us meet the challenge!

 Updated September 20, 2021